![]() In Europe, better products, higher EV incentives and the 95g/km CO 2 mandate for average fleet emissions stimulated demand and supply beyond expectations in the second half of 20. Meanwhile, Volkswagen (VW) Group is expected to exceed the one million EV mark in 2024, with Hyundai Motor, General Motors (GM), and Stellantis expected to follow suit in 2025. With the rollout of the refreshed Model 3 and the Cybertruck, as well as an anticipated compact crossover and hatchback in 20 respectively, it is forecast to be the leading EV maker globally from 2025. However, Tesla remains the largest BEV player globally. For 2023, BYD is expected to deliver over three million EVs, compared to 1.8 million units for Tesla. However, it is also the main source of forecast uncertainties, with economic headwinds hanging over the automotive sector alongside potential policy changes that could disrupt EV uptake.īuoyed by the Chinese market and an increased PHEV offering, BYD overtook Tesla to become the world’s biggest EV manufacturer in 2022. Once again, China is the main driver for global volume and growth. This will increase to nearly 30% by the end of 2035, with EVs only accounting for half of all operational light vehicles by 2042. But with 1.33 billion light vehicles currently on the road, EV-volumes forecasts that by the end of 2030, electric vehicles will only account for 15% of the global parc, assuming normal scrappage rates. The number of EVs in operation will rise rapidly. It is expected to more than double to over 74.5 million units in 2035. The unit volume of global EV sales is set to triple from 10.5 million in 2022 to over 31 million in 2027. Accordingly, the global EV share is predicted to be lower throughout the decade than previously forecast, reaching 23.5% in 2025, then 45.3% in 2030, and 68.4% in 2035. ![]() However, over 300,000 additional EV sales are now expected globally in 2023, largely thanks to a stronger outlook for total light-vehicle sales in China.ĮV uptake has weakened in North America, while recent subsidy cuts in European markets like Germany, Sweden and the UK have damaged demand, particularly for PHEVs. This market penetration rate is slightly lower than predictions made earlier in the year, especially as the 2023 EV share in China is now forecast to be 33%, down from 35% previously. EVs are therefore expected to take a higher 16% share of the global light-vehicle market this year. Meanwhile, the entire light-vehicle market, which includes passenger cars and light-commercial vehicles, is only predicted to rise by 9%. ![]() This equates to EV sales growth of 34% compared with 2022. We forecast that global EV sales, comprising battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs), will reach 14.1 million units in 2023. EVs Forecast to Account for Two Thirds of Global Light-Vehicle Sales in 2035 By Neil King, Forecasting Lead at EV-volumes
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